Well okay. After two straight weeks of being at least three games below .500, I can’t be too disappointed in an 8-7 week that featured such awful predictions as Carolina (-3) over Tennessee, the Lions (+2.5) over the Bears, and the Jets (-1) over the Patriots. Each of those games was a blowout in the direction opposite of what I picked.
So 8-7? I’ll take it. It brings me to 68-71-5 on the year, so I’ll hold out totally irrational hope that I can get back to .500 this week.
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Last week was the first time all year (or at least one of the very rare times) when I’ve predicted the 49ers to cover the spread. But they came through with flying colors against a very good New York Giants team. I’m starting to feel a lot more comfortable with this 49ers team, and you should too.
But I’m also still feeling good about the Giants, and I think they’ll end up winning the NFC East, but not before they get a nice fight from the Dallas Cowboys. You have to think Cowboys-Giants tickets will be a hot item later this year when they face off, as the NFC East will be on the line. Though the Giants have the lead right now, the Dallas Cowboys schedule and their recent play suggests that they are not going to go away easy.
Two teams that I have no clue about anymore, however, are the Patriots and Jets. I’m no NY Jets tickets holder, but really expected the Jets to win that game handily based on what I’d seen over the past several weeks; instead New England dominated. It just goes to show that everything can change in a week, so we always have to be on our toes.
Let’s pick some games.
A couple of quick things to keep in mind:
- The Colts, Texans, Saints, and Steelers are all on bye in Week 11.
- All times are ET.
- All spread info as of Monday night. If you want updated point spread info, or some expert advice as you make your weekly picks, below are a few helpful links.
- DocSports: Week 11 NFL Odds and Lines
- DocSports: Week 11 NFL Odds and Lines
Now here are your Week 11 picks, along with the point spreads and over-under odds for each game.
NFL Week 11 Bettor’s Guide
Picks – Point Spreads – Over-Under Odds
Free Picks Against the Spread (ATS)
———-
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
- Jets-Broncos Date, Time, and TV: Thursday, November 17th at 8:20 ET on NFLN
- Jets-Broncos Point Spread: Jets -4.5
- Jets-Broncos Over-Under Odds: 41
- Jets-Broncos Spread Pick: The Tim Tebow story has been nice, but let’s face some facts here: he’s beaten Miami, Oakland, and Kansas City, and none of those three teams is a top 15 team in the NFL (certainly not on D). He got trounced by the Lions, which is a top 15 team, and now plays an angry, damn near desperate Jets team on Thursday night. It just doesn’t add up to another victory. I’ll eat crow if wrong, but I’m going with logic here. Jets-Broncos free pick: Jets -4.5
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
- Panthers-Lions Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 1:00 ET on FOX
- Panthers-Lions Point Spread: Lions -7
- Panthers-Lions Over-Under Odds: 47.5
- Panthers-Lions Spread Pick: I don’t what the hell to expect from either team at this point, so I’m going to overlook one bad week from Carolina and go back to expected a backdoor cover from Cam Newton. That has worked more often than it hasn’t this season. Panthers-Lions free pick: Panthers +7
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
- Bengals-Ravens Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 1:00 ET on CBS
- Bengals-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -7
- Bengals-Ravens Over-Under Odds: 40.5
- Bengals-Ravens Spread Pick: Baltimore at home, after a lazy loss, against a tough divisional foe is usually a good bet for a victory. I like this Cincy team, but they just played the Steelers about as tough as they can all things considered, and they still lost by 7 at home. Better teams than Cincy have gone into Baltimore and been blown out. I think it happens here. Bengals-Ravens free pick: Ravens -7
Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings
- Raiders-Vikings Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 1:00 ET on CBS
- Raiders-Vikings Point Spread: Vikings -1
- Raiders-Vikings Over-Under Odds: 44
- Raiders-Vikings Spread Pick: Readers of this column and my weekly Suck For Luck piece know that I haven’t jumped off the Vikings’ bandwagon as a team that can still win games in the second half of the season. And I like them here. Adrian Peterson will gash Oakland even worse than Willis McGahee did, and the Raiders fall flat on their faces in a tough road battle. Big surprise, right? Raiders-Vikings free pick: Vikings -1
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
- Bills-Dolphins Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 1:00 ET on CBS
- Bills-Dolphins Point Spread: Dolphins -1
- Bills-Dolphins Over-Under Odds: 43
- Bills-Dolphins Spread Pick: This line right here is all you need to know to realize just how week-to-week the NFL is. The Dolphins were Andrew Luck contenders just a few weeks back, and they are now favored over a team that had playoff aspirations as recently as last week. Current trends continue here. I actually think Miami is a better team overall than Buffalo. Yeah, I said it. Don’t be surprised if the records reflect it at season’s end. Bills-Dolphins free pick: Dolphins -1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
- Buccaneers-Packers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 1:00 ET on FOX
- Buccaneers-Packers Point Spread: Packers -13
- Buccaneers-Packers Over-Under Odds: 49
- Buccaneers-Packers Spread Pick: Ugh. I have no idea what to do with this line. Tampa Bay certainly can give Green Bay a good game. They have the talent. But they could also lose by 50. So know that I pick this game with zero confidence about what will happen. In 2011, the safe money in such cases has been with the Packers, even with big spreads. I trusted them Monday and it worked. Sign me up again. Bucs-Packers free pick: Packers -13
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
- Cowboys-Redskins Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 1:00 ET on FOX
- Cowboys-Redskins Point Spread: Cowboys -9
- Cowboys-Redskins Over-Under Odds: 41.5
- Cowboys-Redskins Spread Pick: Dallas has a habit of laying eggs on the road at the precise time you think they are ready to emerge as a legit contender. They’ll win this game because the talent gap – especially at QB – is so great, but I’m not trusting these inconsistent Cowboys with 9 points on the road, Sexy Rexy or not. Cowboys-Redskins free pick: Redskins +9
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
- Jaguars-Browns Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 1:00 ET on CBS
- Jaguars-Browns Point Spread: Jaguars -1
- Jaguars-Browns Over-Under Odds: 34.5
- Jaguars-Browns Spread Pick: This line also made me laugh. The awful Jaguars are favored at the Factory of Sadness. It’s like the oddsmakers are actually predicting botched Browns field goal attempts now. I can’t see this happening though. Cleveland has to win this game…don’t they? Don’t they? Jaguars-Browns free pick: Browns +1
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
- Seahawks-Rams Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 4:05 ET on FOX
- Seahawks-Rams Point Spread: Rams -1
- Seahawks-Rams Over-Under Odds: 37.5
- Seahawks-Rams Spread Pick: Who would have thought that this game would feature teams on winning streaks??? Not I, but it does! Seattle usually sucks away from home, so I’ll take the Rams before I think myself out of it. Seahawks-Rams free pick: Rams -1
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
- Cardinals-49ers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 4:05 ET on FOX
- Cardinals-49ers Point Spread: 49ers -9.5
- Cardinals-49ers Over-Under Odds: 41.5
- Cardinals-49ers Spread Pick: I finally picked the 49ers to cover the spread last week, and they came through! What a win for San Fran. Still, I actually think they are going to struggle a bit more with their divisional schedule than most people do, especially now that they essentially have the division wrapped up. They’ll win this game, but the suddenly surging Skelton-led Cardinals will make it a game. Cardinals-49ers free pick: Cardinals +9.5
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons
- Titans-Falcons Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 4:15 ET on CBS
- Titans-Falcons Point Spread: Falcons -6
- Titans-Falcons Over-Under Odds: 44
- Titans-Falcons Spread Pick: I’m shocked that Tennessee did what it did to Carolina last week. I really don’t know what to expect from them from week to week. But we do know what to expect from Atlanta at home, and that’s a solid performance. I think a solid Atlanta performance is a touchdown better than Tennessee. Titans-Falcons free picks: Falcons -6
San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears
- Chargers-Bears Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 4:15 ET on CBS
- Chargers-Bears Point Spread: Bears -3.5
- Chargers-Bears Over-Under Odds: 46.5
- Chargers-Bears Spread Pick: I underestimated the Bears. They are a damn good football team. San Diego, on the other hand, is not. The Chargers are talented, so a win here would not shock me, but based on what we’ve seen it’s impossible to pick against the Bears here unless you think they’re just due for an off game. I don’t. Bears roll. Bears-Chargers free pick: Bears -3.5
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
- Eagles-Giants Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 20th at 8:20 ET on NBC
- Eagles-Giants Point Spread: Giants -3.5
- Eagles-Giants Over-Under Odds: 47
- Eagles-Giants Spread Pick: The Giants are only laying 3.5 points in this one? With Michael Vick having broken ribs? And locker room issues abounding? Philly has the talent to get something done here, but I’m trusting the better quarterback, which is by far Eli. Eagles-Giants free pick: Giants -3.5
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
- Chiefs-Patriots Date, Time, and TV: Monday, November 21st at 8:30 ET on ESPN
- Chiefs-Patriots Point Spread: No line as of Monday night
- Chiefs-Patriots Over-Under Odds: No line as of Monday night
- Chiefs-Patriots Spread Pick:
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